Friday, August 21, 2009

The Royals and the Nationals

None of them are as bad as both of them

You may have noticed this, but the Royals and Nationals are not having the best of seasons. The Royals, sitting at 47-73 are hot on the heals of the 43-78 Nationals in the race to the bottom. Hope seems but a distant glimmer in the thoughts of fans of these teams, but what if in an alternate universe the two teams combined into a powerhouse of mediocrity? Would they be able to even compete or would they be just as bad? Here, I throw caution (and adjusted park and league factors) to the wind to attempt to answer this question. Below, I will take each position and compare the players from both organizations. Commentary may follow.

Batting

Catcher

ROYALS Wins Above Replacement (WAR) NATIONALS Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
Miguel Olivo 1.2 Jesus Flores 1.0
John Buck 0.3 Josh Bard 0.5
Brayan Pena 0.7 Wil Nieves 0.2

The default pick here is Miguel Olivo (!) who has been worth 1.2 wins above a replacement player this season. However, Brayan Pena has only had 107 plate appearances during his call-up which depresses his number of wins. A triple slash of .320/.352/.485 tells me that he really should be the representative to this all*star team. As I write this, I see Pena hit a homerun in the 9th to send the MIN-KCR game into extras.

Jesus Flores also has had his value depressed due to an injury this season that has limited him to 103 plate appearances. His triple slash is .311/.382/.522 so really I would choose Flores as the starter with Pena as the backup, at least for now

First Base

ROYALS Wins Above Replacement (WAR) NATIONALS Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
Billy Butler 1.7 Nick Johnson 1.2

Butler, no question, has been one of best players on the Royals this season. His 13.2 Batting Runs above average is amazing and reason enough for the Royals to build around him going forward. Nick Johnson hasn't been bad either, perhaps we'll save him for a DH

Second Base

ROYALS Wins Above Replacement (WAR) NATIONALS Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
Alberto Callaspo 0.9 Ronnie Belliard 0.2
Tug Hulett -0.4 Anderson Hernandez 0.0
Others play here, but are in the negative for WAR

Anderson Hernandez is not really eligible as he is now a Met, but I don't think he'd make it anyway. Alberto Callaspo has had a nice season picking up 3.2 runs above the average 2B. However, he is a butcher on defense giving up 11.5 more runs than the average 2B. All together, though, he is still above Ronnie Belliard and gets the nod, albeit a bit grudgingly.

Third Base

ROYALS Wins Above Replacement (WAR) NATIONALS Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
Mark Teahen 0.9 Ryan Zimmerman 5.7
Alex Gordon 0.3 n/a -.-

Ryan Zimmerman has had a great season and has accumulated 5.7 Wins so far this season. Not only is he an above average hitter, he is also above average in the field posting an extra 16 runs saved above the average 3B. I love Teahen and Gordon, but Zimmerman has to be the consensus #1 here.

Shortstop

ROYALS Wins Above Replacement (WAR) NATIONALS Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
Yuniesky Betancourt -1.0 Christian Guzman 1.3
Willie Bloomquist -0.4 n/a -.-
Tony Pena -0.8 n/a -.-

Luis Hernandez is technically the best Royal SS, but since Betancourt is the main starter, I put him in. For comparison, I put in Tony Pena Jr., the guy Betancourt was acquired to replace. So far, the move isn't exactly paying off. (Not that I ever thought it would, but that's another post.)

I also would have thought that Bloomquist was better than replacement level, but that doesn't appear to be the case either. Historically speaking, Bloomquist has been the epitome of replacement level, so I suppose it isn't that surprising. Christian Guzman gets the easy nod here, but he's not that great either, just not as bad as the Royals offerings

Outfielders

ROYALS Wins Above Replacement (WAR) NATIONALS Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
David DeJesus 2.1 Josh Willingham 3.1
Coco Crisp 1.3 Nyjer Morgan 2.9
Mitch Maier 0.4 Adam Dunn 1.8

I'm truly surprised. I would have thought that Adam Dunn was the most valuable OF, but giving up 27.9 runs in the field more than average tends to mitigate his bat. So your outfielders are Willingham, Morgan and DeJesus. Coco Crisp can be the 4th outfielder and I'd put Dunn as the DH to retain his bat in the lineup.

Pitching

Starters

ROYALS Wins Above Replacement (WAR) NATIONALS Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
Zach Greinke 6.7 Jordan Zimmermann 1.9
Brian Bannister 2.4 John Lannan 1.4
Gil Meche 1.5 Craig Stammen 0.9
Luke Hochever 0.9 Ross Detwiler 0.9

Zack Greinke leads the charge here which is no surprise. As a whole, the Royals pitching staff is far and above better than the Nationals. Your starters are Greinke, Bannister, Zimmermann, Meche, and Lannan. Special mention goes to Hochevar and Stephen Strausburg.

Relievers

ROYALS Wins Above Replacement (WAR) NATIONALS Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
Joakim Soria 1.2 Joel Hanrahan 0.4
Robinson Tejeda 0.6 Garrett Mock 0.4
Sidney Ponson 0.6 Joe Beimel 0.2
Kyle Farnsworth 0.4 (!) Julian Tavarez 0.2

Here is the soft underbelly of the Royals-Nationals All*Star team. None of these guys outside of Soria inspire much confidence. Some are starters that didn't make even the low standards for the 5th starter on their respective squads. So your bullpen ace is Soria and the middle relief core is made up of Tejeda, Ponson, Hanrahan, Mock and, as much as it pains me, Farnsworth.

Conclusions

Using my rudimentary understanding of WAR etc, it appears that these changes would transform the Royals and Nationals to a 74-46 team. How good is that? It would make them first in every division except for the AL East. Did I make a mistake? Probably, but considering Dunn would be a DH instead of an outfielder would help close the gap. Also, I didn't count any bench stats, just 9 position players (including a DH) and 10 pitchers. I also didn't count Hochevar even though I think he would be great at least in the bullpen.

For further study, it would be interesting to see what the ideal team would be going forward taking into account salaries and prospects in the minors. In any case, combining these two teams would contend in any division. Share your thoughts below.

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