PowerRanks: Week 22

The Playoffs are different

I don't know how reliable these numbers are anymore as I've added in the playoff numbers. When a team has a bye week, I have to estimate those numbers. So, take these ranks with a bit of salt. But so far, the best team in the playoffs is the SD ThunderCrack. However, since they had a bye week in the first week of the playoffs, those numbers are estimated and come out quite good. Unfortunately for him, it didn't transfer to a good performance this past week against tropical bakers.

So the championship game will be a replay of the 2007 championship game. That time Jordan took the game 6-4. Jordan and Grant were the number 1 and 2 team that year, this year, Grant is number 1 and Jordan ranked 6th, barely edging into the playoffs this season.

Week 23 PowerRanks

Weekly Rankings
Rank	Last Week	PR+	Team
1	2	131.2	Lyin' Co. Reformers
2	1	129.2	Iger's Tigers
3	5	116.1	Soi Disant
4	3	113.6	Charisma
5	10	111.3	Lucky 13's
6	7	96.7	tropical bakers
7	11	96.5	LA Dodgers
8	9	95.4	Mitchell Mudhens
9	8	94.5	Seal Beach Dreamers
10	4	77.9	Team LA
11	6	74.7	SD ThunderCrack
12	12	62.9	sorbet d'arc-enciel
Yearly Rankings
Rank	Last Week	PR+	Team
1	1	137.1	Iger's Tigers
2	2	113.5	Seal Beach Dreamers
3	4	112.4	SD ThunderCrack
4	3	108.5	Lyin' Co. Reformers
5	5	100.2	Team LA
6	8	96.6	tropical bakers
7	10	96.5	Mitchell Mudhens
8	6	94.4	Soi Disant
9	9	93.2	LA Dodgers
10	7	90.1	Lucky 13's
11	11	87.2	Charisma
12	12	70.4	sorbet d'arc-enciel

Keepers

Let's clear up the confusion

I've heard from some of you thinking that we were not doing keepers next season. That is not true. Many of you have told me how much you like having keepers on you team and I think it adds a little more fun into the mix, so be thinking about who you want to keep next year.

Here are the rules:

• You may have up to 3 keepers o-ranked (Yahoo's ranking) 1-99. These players will be drafted in the first 3 rounds. You may choose to take the draft picks instead of the keeper.
• You may also retain 5 more keepers o-ranked 100+. These will be drafted in order in rounds 10-14. Again, you may take draft picks or a combination of draft picks and keepers for this round.
• You must submit your keepers 2 weeks prior to the start of the draft
• There will then be a 3 day window to change your keepers after seeing everyone elses.
• You may begin trading players (any players, not just keepers) from your 2009 roster after the conclusion of the playoffs. They may be traded for other players or draft positions. (i.e. you can trade Player A for the other team's 4th round pick.)
• If you want to keep the player you drafted, you must add him to your keepers.
• Your roster will consist of only your keepers 2 weeks from the start of the draft.

I know this may be a bit confusing, so let me know if you have questions. Just post them in the comment section below. This is a FIRST DRAFT of the rules, and the aim is to level the playing field enough so that everyone, regardless of interest or ability will be able to have fun. Please let me know any thoughts you have.

PowerRanks: Week 21

Here come the playoffs!

After a hard fought battle, the top 6 places are spoken for: The Cocos, SD ThunderCrack, Seal Beach Dreamers, Lyin' Co. Reformers, Team LA and tropcial bakers are all in the mix for the crown. Who will wear the cufflinks this offseason?

In addition to the top six spots, I'd like to bestow a couple awards, so look for that coming up. For now, here are the final regular season PowerRanks.

Week 21 PowerRanks

Weekly Rankings
Rank	Last Week	PR+	Team
1	1	160.5	Iger's Tigers
2	4	136.0	Lyin' Co. Reformers
3	11	135.1	Charisma
4	3	117.8	Team LA
5	9	110.1	Soi Disant
6	5	99.0	SD ThunderCrack
7	8	96.1	tropical bakers
8	2	92.3	Seal Beach Dreamers
9	10	80.7	Mitchell Mudhens
10	7	80.6	Lucky 13's
11	6	46.9	LA Dodgers
12	12	44.7	sorbet d'arc-enciel
Yearly Rankings
Rank	Last Week	PR+	Team
1	1	157.9	Iger's Tigers
2	2	116.8	Seal Beach Dreamers
3	3	116.7	Lyin' Co. Reformers
4	4	109.5	SD ThunderCrack
5	5	107.0	Team LA
6	6	103.1	Soi Disant
7	7	95.3	Lucky 13's
8	8	92.2	tropical bakers
9	9	84.5	LA Dodgers
10	10	5.1	Mitchell Mudhens
11	11	70.3	Charisma
12	12	65.6	sorbet d'arc-enciel

PowerRanks: Week 20

One week left until the playoffs! The Yearly PowerRank seems to have stabilized somewhat, no one moved a place at all. The big playoff race is on for the last playoff spot. Both the LA Dodgers and tropical bakers have .500 records and whoever wins this week will win the final playoff spot barring a total collapse of both and a huge surge by one of the teams behind them. The tropical bakers are playing Charisma this week while the LA Dodgers draw the SD ThunderCrack.

It is also interesting to note at this time who the 2nd half movers are. The Cocos lead the pack improving on their first half by 39.7 points of PR+. Other teams that have huge gains in the second half are the Lucky 13's (25.1), Charisma (22.3), and the LA Dodgers (12.5). Other teams have dropped off in the second half led by last season's runners up with -41.8 point difference over the course of the second half. Other teams that have fared worse during the second half are reigning champion Team LA (-27.9), Lyin' Co. Reformers (-18.8), and the Soi Disant (-17.2).

Week 20 PowerRanks

Weekly Rankings
Rank	Last Week	PR+	Team
1	2	157.9	Iger's Tigers
2	5	145.4	Seal Beach Dreamers
3	9	120.6	Team LA
4	3	113.5	Lyin' Co. Reformers
5	1	104.9	SD ThunderCrack
6	4	99.9	LA Dodgers
7	7	92.4	Lucky 13's
8	10	91.1	tropical bakers
9	12	86.8	Soi Disant
10	11	77.1	Mitchell Mudhens
11	6	59.6	Charisma
12	8	50.8	sorbet d'arc-enciel
Yearly Rankings
Rank	Last Week	PR+	Team
1	1	157.2	Iger's Tigers
2	2	120.0	Seal Beach Dreamers
3	3	115.1	Lyin' Co. Reformers
4	4	110.1	SD ThunderCrack
5	5	104.8	Team LA
6	6	101.0	Soi Disant
7	7	94.4	Lucky 13's
8	8	91.8	tropical bakers
9	9	86.7	LA Dodgers
10	10	82.4	Mitchell Mudhens
11	11	70.0	Charisma
12	12	66.7	sorbet d'arc-enciel

PowerRanks: Week 19

Well, here are the PowerRanks again. With Lyndsey and the kids out of town, I had time to update my spreadsheet and the blog. Here are the updated results.

The playoffs are coming up soon and the trading deadline is August 30th. The top 6 teams will advance in a three week-long playoffs. It should be a lot of fun. Playoffs begin August 31.

Fantasy Baseball is a funny game. Especially in the format we play. If you are looking at the chart and are a bit depressed (or overconfident) remember that any team can still beat any other team any given week. While the yearly PowerRankings are great to get a picture of how your team has done over the course of the season, it doesn't predict any given week matchup. Maybe your star pitcher has a game where he goes just three innings giving up 5 runs. Or maybe your best hitter goes down for 2 weeks with an injury. Maybe you have some unexpected production from some of your fringe players. In any case, each weekly matchup is a game unto itself. During the stretch run, its important to remember that. Good luck everyone!

Weekly Rankings
Rank	Last Week	PR+	Team
1	7	144.1	SD ThunderCrack
2	1	137.6	Iger's Tigers
3	4	125.4	Lyin' Co. Reformers
4	6	124.2	LA Dodgers
5	3	114.0	Seal Beach Dreamers
6	8	104.6	Charisma
7	11	93.0	Lucky 13's
8	5	78.6	sorbet d'arc-enciel
9	2	74.4	Team LA
10	12	73.5	tropical bakers
11	9	71.1	Mitchell Mudhens
12	10	59.4	Soi Disant
Yearly Rankings*
Rank	Last Week	PR+	Team
1	1	152.8	Iger's Tigers
2	2	115.9	Seal Beach Dreamers
3	3	115.5	Lyin' Co. Reformers
4	4	108.7	SD ThunderCrack
5	7	103.7	Team LA
6	8	101.4	Soi Disant
7	10	95.7	Lucky 13's
8	6	91.7	tropical bakers
9	9	88.0	LA Dodgers
10	5	85.2	Mitchell Mudhens
11	11	72.7	Charisma
12	12	68.6	sorbet d'arc-enciel
*yearly ranking "last week" is actually week 12

The Royals and the Nationals

None of them are as bad as both of them

You may have noticed this, but the Royals and Nationals are not having the best of seasons. The Royals, sitting at 47-73 are hot on the heals of the 43-78 Nationals in the race to the bottom. Hope seems but a distant glimmer in the thoughts of fans of these teams, but what if in an alternate universe the two teams combined into a powerhouse of mediocrity? Would they be able to even compete or would they be just as bad? Here, I throw caution (and adjusted park and league factors) to the wind to attempt to answer this question. Below, I will take each position and compare the players from both organizations. Commentary may follow.

Batting

Catcher

ROYALS	Wins Above Replacement (WAR)	NATIONALS	Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
Miguel Olivo	1.2	Jesus Flores	1.0
John Buck	0.3	Josh Bard	0.5
Brayan Pena	0.7	Wil Nieves	0.2

The default pick here is Miguel Olivo (!) who has been worth 1.2 wins above a replacement player this season. However, Brayan Pena has only had 107 plate appearances during his call-up which depresses his number of wins. A triple slash of .320/.352/.485 tells me that he really should be the representative to this all*star team. As I write this, I see Pena hit a homerun in the 9th to send the MIN-KCR game into extras.

Jesus Flores also has had his value depressed due to an injury this season that has limited him to 103 plate appearances. His triple slash is .311/.382/.522 so really I would choose Flores as the starter with Pena as the backup, at least for now

First Base

ROYALS	Wins Above Replacement (WAR)	NATIONALS	Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
Billy Butler	1.7	Nick Johnson	1.2

Butler, no question, has been one of best players on the Royals this season. His 13.2 Batting Runs above average is amazing and reason enough for the Royals to build around him going forward. Nick Johnson hasn't been bad either, perhaps we'll save him for a DH

Second Base

ROYALS	Wins Above Replacement (WAR)	NATIONALS	Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
Alberto Callaspo	0.9	Ronnie Belliard	0.2
Tug Hulett	-0.4	Anderson Hernandez	0.0
Others play here, but are in the negative for WAR

Anderson Hernandez is not really eligible as he is now a Met, but I don't think he'd make it anyway. Alberto Callaspo has had a nice season picking up 3.2 runs above the average 2B. However, he is a butcher on defense giving up 11.5 more runs than the average 2B. All together, though, he is still above Ronnie Belliard and gets the nod, albeit a bit grudgingly.

Third Base

ROYALS	Wins Above Replacement (WAR)	NATIONALS	Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
Mark Teahen	0.9	Ryan Zimmerman	5.7
Alex Gordon	0.3	n/a	-.-

Ryan Zimmerman has had a great season and has accumulated 5.7 Wins so far this season. Not only is he an above average hitter, he is also above average in the field posting an extra 16 runs saved above the average 3B. I love Teahen and Gordon, but Zimmerman has to be the consensus #1 here.

Shortstop

ROYALS	Wins Above Replacement (WAR)	NATIONALS	Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
Yuniesky Betancourt	-1.0	Christian Guzman	1.3
Willie Bloomquist	-0.4	n/a	-.-
Tony Pena	-0.8	n/a	-.-

Luis Hernandez is technically the best Royal SS, but since Betancourt is the main starter, I put him in. For comparison, I put in Tony Pena Jr., the guy Betancourt was acquired to replace. So far, the move isn't exactly paying off. (Not that I ever thought it would, but that's another post.)

I also would have thought that Bloomquist was better than replacement level, but that doesn't appear to be the case either. Historically speaking, Bloomquist has been the epitome of replacement level, so I suppose it isn't that surprising. Christian Guzman gets the easy nod here, but he's not that great either, just not as bad as the Royals offerings

Outfielders

ROYALS	Wins Above Replacement (WAR)	NATIONALS	Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
David DeJesus	2.1	Josh Willingham	3.1
Coco Crisp	1.3	Nyjer Morgan	2.9
Mitch Maier	0.4	Adam Dunn	1.8

I'm truly surprised. I would have thought that Adam Dunn was the most valuable OF, but giving up 27.9 runs in the field more than average tends to mitigate his bat. So your outfielders are Willingham, Morgan and DeJesus. Coco Crisp can be the 4th outfielder and I'd put Dunn as the DH to retain his bat in the lineup.

Pitching

Starters

ROYALS	Wins Above Replacement (WAR)	NATIONALS	Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
Zach Greinke	6.7	Jordan Zimmermann	1.9
Brian Bannister	2.4	John Lannan	1.4
Gil Meche	1.5	Craig Stammen	0.9
Luke Hochever	0.9	Ross Detwiler	0.9

Zack Greinke leads the charge here which is no surprise. As a whole, the Royals pitching staff is far and above better than the Nationals. Your starters are Greinke, Bannister, Zimmermann, Meche, and Lannan. Special mention goes to Hochevar and Stephen Strausburg.

Relievers

ROYALS	Wins Above Replacement (WAR)	NATIONALS	Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
Joakim Soria	1.2	Joel Hanrahan	0.4
Robinson Tejeda	0.6	Garrett Mock	0.4
Sidney Ponson	0.6	Joe Beimel	0.2
Kyle Farnsworth	0.4 (!)	Julian Tavarez	0.2

Here is the soft underbelly of the Royals-Nationals All*Star team. None of these guys outside of Soria inspire much confidence. Some are starters that didn't make even the low standards for the 5th starter on their respective squads. So your bullpen ace is Soria and the middle relief core is made up of Tejeda, Ponson, Hanrahan, Mock and, as much as it pains me, Farnsworth.

Conclusions

Using my rudimentary understanding of WAR etc, it appears that these changes would transform the Royals and Nationals to a 74-46 team. How good is that? It would make them first in every division except for the AL East. Did I make a mistake? Probably, but considering Dunn would be a DH instead of an outfielder would help close the gap. Also, I didn't count any bench stats, just 9 position players (including a DH) and 10 pitchers. I also didn't count Hochevar even though I think he would be great at least in the bullpen.

For further study, it would be interesting to see what the ideal team would be going forward taking into account salaries and prospects in the minors. In any case, combining these two teams would contend in any division. Share your thoughts below.

It's been awhile

Hello loyal readers. I'm sorry it has been so long since I last posted. As usual, real life got in the way. I'll try to get a new post out with the power ranks soon.

Week 12 PowerRanks

First, let me preface this week by saying I found a small error in my spreadsheet which led to errors in figuring the Weekly PR+. I have fixed this and changed the last week ranks to be correct as well. The difference is probably minor. In most cases, I've noticed that it increased the total.

The LA Dodgers had another excellent week beating Team LA 8-2 and posting a PR+ of 133.0, good enough for second place in the weekly ranks. Things look bleak for last season's champion Team LA as they managed to barely win Net Stolen Bases and pitching strikeouts by 1 and 7 respectively. Tyler, meanwhile, punched up the most RBI's, 2^nd fewest batting Ks, 3^rd best OBP, was pretty much average in NSB, W, SV, pitching Ks, the best ERA and WHIP. So, yeah, he's doing pretty well.

Lyin' Co. Reformers rebounded nicely this past week, but still lost 8-2 managing to take only batting Ks and NSB. Overall, his scores were average or above average contributing to an above average 112.1. It will be interesting to see how he fares against the suddenly good tropical bakers in Week 13.

Match-ups in Week 13

Iger's Tigers vs. Seal Beach Dreamers

These two teams are first and second in the yearly PowerRankings and were first and third in the weeklies. Who will pull out the victory this week?

Lyin' Co. Reformers vs. tropical bakers

Lyin' Co. Reformers went from 2^nd worst to 5^th and look to continue the upward trend this week. Jordan and the tropical bakers have been surging lately, though and so far this week are winning 8-1.

Soi Disant vs. Mitchell Mudhens

Both teams are within 6 points of each other in the Yearly PowerRanks. In fact, until this past week, Soi Disant was above 100 and just below Mitchell Mudhens in the ranks.

LA Dodgers vs. Lucky 13's

The LA Dodgers are riding a hot streak where they've won 8-2 the past 2 weeks. The Lucky 13's are trying to end a four game skid, with the last three losses by 2 points or less. Can they slow down the Dodgers?

Charisma vs. Team LA

Charisma has been just about average the entire season. Finally, he has come out and won 2 in a row after being win-less since the beginning of the season. Team LA has alternated wins and losses, but is our former champion on the ropes after losing 8-2 to the LA Dodgers?

SD ThunderCrack vs. sorbet d'arc-enciel

The ThunderCrack go head to head against the delicious frozen treat. Both have losing streaks coming into the game but the ThunderCrack have had the better PR+ rank and on paper it looks like a straight forward match.

See you next week!

Weekly Rankings
Rank	Last Week	PR+	Team
1	1	158.8	Iger's Tigers
2	3	133.0	LA Dodgers
3	4	111.1	Seal Beach Dreamers
4	2	117.8	tropical bakers
5	11	112.1	Lyin' Co. Reformers
6	8	100.1	Mitchell Mudhens
7	7	96.5	Charisma
8	9	89.6	Soi Disant
9	6	89.2	SD ThunderCrack
10	5	80.4	Lucky 13's
11	12	62.5	sorbet d'arc-enciel
12	10	39.6	Team LA
Yearly Rankings
Rank	Last Week	PR+	Team
1	1	149.4	Iger's Tigers
2	2	118.8	Seal Beach Dreamers
3	3	116.1	Lyin' Co. Reformers
4	4	107.4	SD ThunderCrack
5	6	105.0	Mitchell Mudhens
6	8	102.1	tropical bakers
7	5	101.0	Team LA
8	7	99.7	Soi Disant
9	9	96.3	LA Dodgers
10	10	79.4	Lucky 13's
11	11	70.4	Charisma
12	12	54.5	sorbet d'arc-enciel

Surprises in Week 12

Who saw this coming, Iger's Tigers defeating the suddenly hapless Lyin' Co. Reformers 8-2? His PR+ has been either 1st or 2nd in 2007 and 2008 and he is third this year. He won the very first championship in 2005, but plummeted to 7th place the next season, but rebounded to 4th, then hasn't finished lower than third place since. If everything holds steady through today, he'll still be in third place, but it would be his 5th losing week in the last six.

So what's going on here? Well, looking at the data, it appears that the Reformers have had above average production from his pitching and average production from his hitters. So his recent string of losing may be just bad luck, unless it indicates a fall-off in the talent level of his players...

So what do you think? Let me know why you think the Reformers have gone from 1st to 3rd. Will they fall further? Or will they rebound?

Manny plays tonight @ 6pm

Manny plays tonight @ 6pm pst. Go Dodgers!

PowerRanks: Week 11

Week 11 was an interesting week as a few teams made big moves in the weekly rankings. tropical bakers has languished in the bottom half of the PowerRankings all season until jumping up to 2nd this past week. Unfortunately, he played Iger's Tigers, the team with the highest PR+ this week. Any other team and tropical would have beaten them, for sure getting more than the one point he managed this week. The LA Dodgers also moved up from dead last to 3rd with their 8-2 win over sorbet. Tyler got above average contributions in every category except RBI, ERA and WHIP. Could this be the beginning of an upward swing?

Elsewhere, Lyin' Co. Reformers plummeted from 2nd to 11th posting a 64.8 PR+, by far his lowest weekly total this year. In fact, not once this season has he had a regular PowerRank below 20 until posting a 15.8. Having 4 pitchers with ERAs over 6.00 and 4 batters with OBPs .286 and below didn't help anyting. His full DL probably has contributed to this week's bad stretch.

As a result of Lyin' Co. Reformers forgettable week, he has moved from 2nd to 3rd on the year as the Seal Beach Dreamers took advantage of his down week and posted a nearly average 97.3. However, to put that in context, only three teams were north of 100 this week due in part to the huge week put up by Iger's Tigers. Lyin Co. Reformers slipped to 3rd in the overall standings as well leaving 2nd to SD ThunderCrack who is only 5.5 games behind the leader. Week 12 is shaping up to be a momentous week as we charge into the 2nd half of the fantasy season.

What do you think about week 11 and on into week 12? What did I leave out? Share your thoughts in the comments section below.

Weekly Rankings
Rank	Last Week	PR+	Team
1	1	159.9	Iger's Tigers
2	8	112.4	tropical bakers
3	12	103.1	LA Dodgers
4	4	98.4	SD ThunderCrack
5	3	97.3	Seal Beach Dreamers
6	9	93.2	Lucky 13's
7	7	93.1	Charisma
8	5	84.0	Soi Disant
9	10	82.5	Mitchell Mudhens
10	6	75.5	Team LA
11	2	64.8	Lyin' Co. Reformers
12	11	57.5	sorbet d'arc-enciel
Yearly Rankings
Rank	Last Week	PR+	Team
1	1	146.4	Iger's Tigers
2	3	120.3	Seal Beach Dreamers
3	2	117.1	Lyin' Co. Reformers
4	5	110.21	SD ThunderCrack
5	4	110.18	Team LA
6	6	105.1	Mitchell Mudhens
7	7	100.5	Soi Disant
8	8	100.1	tropical bakers
9	9	90.1	LA Dodgers
10	10	79.5	Lucky 13's
11	11	67.1	Charisma
12	12	53.3	sorbet d'arc-enciel

Baseball Images: Rosenblatt

One thing I'd like to do here is share baseball related images. Today's picture comes from Jordan (tropical bakers) taken during sunset at a recent game at Rosenblatt stadium.

Welcome to the Happier Family Blog

Welcome to the Happier Family fantasy baseball blog. Here, we will continue the conversation begun online and offline, post rankings and discussion, discuss the past, present and future of the league, talk about baseball in general and build our familial relationships. I welcome your thoughts suggestions and questions, just email me or leave a comment here.